1.6 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting
[1.6 minutes of SMM Bronze Morning Association]
Macro aspect:
1) attacks on the US Embassy and Air Force Base in Iraq. Major General Suleimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard was killed in an air strike in Baghdad. Trump warned Iran that it would strike 52 Iranian locations if it retaliated against the United States. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander Tangisili said Iran is fully prepared and can't wait to retaliate against the United States. International oil prices have soared as tensions between the United States and Iraq have escalated. Risk aversion has risen sharply, with spot gold rising sharply on Friday.
2) US ISM manufacturing PMI fell sharply in December, reporting a figure of 47.2, well below expectations of 49 and 48.1. A reading below 50 means manufacturing shrinks and worsens and could also be a drag on the performance of the services sector. The data also provide a reference for Friday's non-farm data.
3) crude oil stocks in the United States fell by 11.463 million barrels in the week to December 27, with an estimated decrease of 3.288 million barrels, a much larger-than-expected decline.
Fundamentals:
1) Copper concentrate: as of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was $58.17 / tonne, up $0.67 / tonne from the previous month. Last week, the copper concentrate market as a whole is still in the Christmas and New year's Day holiday atmosphere, the market performance is relatively light, the spot offer has not changed significantly, but the market inquiry activity has improved slightly.
2) scrap copper: the average price difference between fine and waste last week was 1769 yuan / ton, down 148 yuan / ton from the previous month. Although the price difference between fine waste and waste narrowed slightly last week, it was still maintained at around 1800 yuan / ton. Near the Spring Festival, the transaction heat of the scrap copper market declined last week, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand as a whole. The overall performance of the upstream holder is high, the downstream consumer price, the price performance is relatively strong, upstream supply and downstream consumption are both weak.
3) Import of copper: last week, the foreign trade market continued to maintain a light pattern, with a slight downward adjustment in the overall quotation. The main reason is that towards the end of the year, market activity is low, and some traders are on vacation, resulting in light trading in the market. In terms of price, the import loss has narrowed slightly, but it is still not conducive to the import operation of customs declaration.
4) inventories: last week, LME copper stocks fell 2825 tons to 144525 tons from the previous month; copper stocks in the previous period increased by 17670 tons to 141317 tons; and copper stocks in the bonded area increased by 3750 tons to 277750 tons.
5) spot: today's trading market in the case of copper prices will continue to improve, and close to the delivery cycle, the price difference continues at 130 yuan / ton, the spot quotation will also be close to this standard, it is expected that the spot price will rise 40-80 yuan / ton today.
Copper prices and forecasts: copper prices fell on Friday night, mainly due to geopolitical issues in the United States and Iraq spurred a significant increase in risk aversion in the market, CMX gold closed up 1.77% to more than $1550, putting strong pressure on copper prices. At present, the situation in the Middle East is still likely to intensify. Iran says it wants to "retaliate severely" against the United States and plans to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Amid the uncertainty of the regional war, it is difficult to improve the market risk aversion in the short term. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in December was also lower than expected, and copper prices are expected to remain under downward pressure. At present, Shanghai copper receives yang, the MACD index green column magnifies, also does not have the benefit to the copper price. Today's copper is expected to be 6110-6170 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 48500-49000 tons.
